"The Selection and Deflection of Expertise in Delphi Exercises," presented at the 1972 Joint National Meetings of the Operations Research Society of America and the Institute of Management Sciences, Atlantic City, New Jersey (November 8, 1972)

It has been claimed that the foundational questions about the Delphi technique of longrange forecasting have all been answered. However, two unanswered foundational questions are considered in this paper. As a problem in the selection of experts, empirical evidence is adduced showing that institutionally sanctioned expertise (e.g. the "professional") in long-range value forecasting is not cost-effective. Another problem is the possibility of an Asch-Sherif deception of experts, or deflection of expertise, in Delphic exercises. Empirical studies are cited where such deflection occurs. Implications of these factors for the use and misuse of the Delphi technique are then discussed. Note that we only discuss Delphi in value forecasting. First we will consider the problem of selection.